Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by astronomers; and (3) multilevel (hierarchical) Bayesian modeling as a major future direction for research in Bayesian astrostatistics, exemplified in part by presentations at the first ISI invited session on astrostatistics, commemorated in this volume. It closes with an intentionally provocative recommendation for astronomical survey data reporting, motivated by the multilevel Bayesian perspective on modeling cosmic populations: that astronomers cease producing catalogs of estimated fluxes and other source properties from surveys. Instead, summaries of likelihood functions (or marginal likelihood functions) for source properties should be reported (not posterior probability density functions), including nontrivial summaries (not simply upper limits) for candidate objects that do not pass traditional detection thresholds.Comment: 27 pp, 4 figures. A lightly revised version of a chapter in "Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astronomy" (Joseph M. Hilbe, ed., Springer, New York, forthcoming in 2012), the inaugural volume for the Springer Series in Astrostatistics. Version 2 has minor clarifications and an additional referenc

Clinical and Immunologic Investigations in Patients With Stiff-Person Spectrum Disorder

Importance: Symptoms of stiff-person syndrome (SPS), stiff-limb syndrome (SLS), or progressive encephalomyelitis with rigidity, myoclonus, or other symptoms (SPS-plus) can occur with several autoantibodies, but the relative frequency of each antibody, syndrome specificity, and prognostic implications are unclear. Objective: To report the clinical and immunologic findings of a large cohort of patients with stiff-person spectrum disorder (SPSD), including SPS, SLS, and SPS-plus. Design, Setting, and Patients: This study retrospectively examined a case series (January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2014) of immunologic investigations performed in a neuroimmunology referral center. The study included 121 patients with clinical features of SPSD. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2015, through November 1, 2015. Main Outcomes and Measures: Analysis of clinical-immunologic associations, including autoantibodies to 8 proteins expressed in inhibitory synapses. Results: The median age of the patients was 51 years (interquartile range, 40-61 years), and 75 (62.0%) were female. Fifty (41.3%) had SPS, 37 (30.6%) had SPS-plus, 24 (19.8%) had SLS, and 10 (8.3%) had SPS or SLS overlapping with ataxia, epilepsy, or encephalitis. Fifty-two patients (43.0%) had glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD65) antibodies (2 with γ-aminobutyric acid-A [GABA-A] receptor antibodies), 24 (19.8%) had α1-subunit of the glycine receptor (GlyR) antibodies (2 with GAD65 antibodies), 5 (4.1%) had other antibodies, and 40 (33.1%) tested negative for antibodies. None had gephyrin or glycine transporter antibodies. Among the main immunologic groups (GAD65 antibodies, GlyR antibodies, and antibody negative), those with GAD65 antibodies were more likely to be female (45 [86.5%] of 52, 8 [36.4%] of 22, and 18 [45.0%] of 40, respectively; P < .001), have systemic autoimmunity (34 [65.4%] of 52, 7 [31.8%] of 22, and 13 [32.5%] of 40, respectively; P = .004), and have longer delays in being tested for antibodies (median, 3 vs 0.5 and 1 year; P < .001). Patients with GAD65 antibodies were more likely to develop SPS (27 [51.9%] of 52) or overlapping syndromes (8 [15.4%] of 52) than patients with GlyR antibodies (5 [22.7%] and 0 [0%] of 22, respectively), who more often developed SPS-plus (12 [54.5%] of 22 vs 7 [13.5%] in those with GAD65 antibodies); antibody-negative patients had an intermediate syndrome distribution. In multivariable analysis, symptom severity (P = .001) and immunologic group (P = .01) were independently associated with outcome. Compared with patients with GlyR antibodies, those with GAD65 antibodies (odds ratio, 11.1, 95% CI, 2.3-53.7; P = .003) had worse outcome. Patients without antibodies had similar outcome than patients with GlyR antibodies (odds ratio, 4.2, 95% CI, 0.9-20.0; P = .07). Conclusions and Relevance: In SPSD, symptom severity and presence and type of antibodies are predictors of outcome

Clinical and Immunologic Investigations in Patients With Stiff-Person Spectrum Disorder

Importance: Symptoms of stiff-person syndrome (SPS), stiff-limb syndrome (SLS), or progressive encephalomyelitis with rigidity, myoclonus, or other symptoms (SPS-plus) can occur with several autoantibodies, but the relative frequency of each antibody, syndrome specificity, and prognostic implications are unclear. Objective: To report the clinical and immunologic findings of a large cohort of patients with stiff-person spectrum disorder (SPSD), including SPS, SLS, and SPS-plus. Design, Setting, and Patients: This study retrospectively examined a case series (January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2014) of immunologic investigations performed in a neuroimmunology referral center. The study included 121 patients with clinical features of SPSD. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2015, through November 1, 2015. Main Outcomes and Measures: Analysis of clinical-immunologic associations, including autoantibodies to 8 proteins expressed in inhibitory synapses. Results: The median age of the patients was 51 years (interquartile range, 40-61 years), and 75 (62.0%) were female. Fifty (41.3%) had SPS, 37 (30.6%) had SPS-plus, 24 (19.8%) had SLS, and 10 (8.3%) had SPS or SLS overlapping with ataxia, epilepsy, or encephalitis. Fifty-two patients (43.0%) had glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD65) antibodies (2 with γ-aminobutyric acid-A [GABA-A] receptor antibodies), 24 (19.8%) had α1-subunit of the glycine receptor (GlyR) antibodies (2 with GAD65 antibodies), 5 (4.1%) had other antibodies, and 40 (33.1%) tested negative for antibodies. None had gephyrin or glycine transporter antibodies. Among the main immunologic groups (GAD65 antibodies, GlyR antibodies, and antibody negative), those with GAD65 antibodies were more likely to be female (45 [86.5%] of 52, 8 [36.4%] of 22, and 18 [45.0%] of 40, respectively; P < .001), have systemic autoimmunity (34 [65.4%] of 52, 7 [31.8%] of 22, and 13 [32.5%] of 40, respectively; P = .004), and have longer delays in being tested for antibodies (median, 3 vs 0.5 and 1 year; P < .001). Patients with GAD65 antibodies were more likely to develop SPS (27 [51.9%] of 52) or overlapping syndromes (8 [15.4%] of 52) than patients with GlyR antibodies (5 [22.7%] and 0 [0%] of 22, respectively), who more often developed SPS-plus (12 [54.5%] of 22 vs 7 [13.5%] in those with GAD65 antibodies); antibody-negative patients had an intermediate syndrome distribution. In multivariable analysis, symptom severity (P = .001) and immunologic group (P = .01) were independently associated with outcome. Compared with patients with GlyR antibodies, those with GAD65 antibodies (odds ratio, 11.1, 95% CI, 2.3-53.7; P = .003) had worse outcome. Patients without antibodies had similar outcome than patients with GlyR antibodies (odds ratio, 4.2, 95% CI, 0.9-20.0; P = .07). Conclusions and Relevance: In SPSD, symptom severity and presence and type of antibodies are predictors of outcome

Prognostic factors in metastatic renal cell carcinoma: metastasectomy as independent prognostic variable

Prognostic and predictive factors in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (MRCC) have been evaluated from untreated patients or patients on several different treatment approaches. The aim of this analysis was to define prognostic and predictive factors in patients treated uniformly with a low-dose outpatient cytokine combination. The relationship between patient-, tumour-, and treatment-related factors was analysed in 99 patients with MRCC. These features were first examined in univariate analyses, then a stepwise modelling approach based on Cox regression was used to form a multivariate model. Nuclear grade, metastasectomy – even incomplete – C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase were identified as independent prognostic factors for survival. Patients assigned to three different risk groups had statistically significant survival differences (30, 22 and 6 months, respectively). A total of 43.4% had undergone metastasectomy, mostly incomplete. Risk group affiliation was correlated with response to treatment. Our findings strongly suggest the consideration of metastasectomy in the management of patients with metastatic renal cell cancer undergoing either immunotherapy or targeted treatment

Punica granatum (Pomegranate) juice provides an HIV-1 entry inhibitor and candidate topical microbicide

BACKGROUND: For ≈ 24 years the AIDS pandemic has claimed ≈ 30 million lives, causing ≈ 14,000 new HIV-1 infections daily worldwide in 2003. About 80% of infections occur by heterosexual transmission. In the absence of vaccines, topical microbicides, expected to block virus transmission, offer hope for controlling the pandemic. Antiretroviral chemotherapeutics have decreased AIDS mortality in industrialized countries, but only minimally in developing countries. To prevent an analogous dichotomy, microbicides should be: acceptable; accessible; affordable; and accelerative in transition from development to marketing. Already marketed pharmaceutical excipients or foods, with established safety records and adequate anti-HIV-1 activity, may provide this option. METHODS: Fruit juices were screened for inhibitory activity against HIV-1 IIIB using CD4 and CXCR4 as cell receptors. The best juice was tested for inhibition of: (1) infection by HIV-1 BaL, utilizing CCR5 as the cellular coreceptor; and (2) binding of gp120 IIIB and gp120 BaL, respectively, to CXCR4 and CCR5. To remove most colored juice components, the adsorption of the effective ingredient(s) to dispersible excipients and other foods was investigated. A selected complex was assayed for inhibition of infection by primary HIV-1 isolates. RESULTS: HIV-1 entry inhibitors from pomegranate juice adsorb onto corn starch. The resulting complex blocks virus binding to CD4 and CXCR4/CCR5 and inhibits infection by primary virus clades A to G and group O. CONCLUSION: These results suggest the possibility of producing an anti-HIV-1 microbicide from inexpensive, widely available sources, whose safety has been established throughout centuries, provided that its quality is adequately standardized and monitored

Secondary contact and admixture between independently invading populations of the Western corn rootworm, diabrotica virgifera virgifera in Europe

The western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), is one of the most destructive pests of corn in North America and is currently invading Europe. The two major invasive outbreaks of rootworm in Europe have occurred, in North-West Italy and in Central and South-Eastern Europe. These two outbreaks originated from independent introductions from North America. Secondary contact probably occurred in North Italy between these two outbreaks, in 2008. We used 13 microsatellite markers to conduct a population genetics study, to demonstrate that this geographic contact resulted in a zone of admixture in the Italian region of Veneto. We show that i) genetic variation is greater in the contact zone than in the parental outbreaks; ii) several signs of admixture were detected in some Venetian samples, in a Bayesian analysis of the population structure and in an approximate Bayesian computation analysis of historical scenarios and, finally, iii) allelic frequency clines were observed at microsatellite loci. The contact between the invasive outbreaks in North-West Italy and Central and South-Eastern Europe resulted in a zone of admixture, with particular characteristics. The evolutionary implications of the existence of a zone of admixture in Northern Italy and their possible impact on the invasion success of the western corn rootworm are discussed

Tree migration-rates : narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates

Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr–1) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr–1), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia

Mutations in protocadherin 15 and cadherin 23 affect tip links and mechanotransduction in mammalian sensory hair cells

Immunocytochemical studies have shown that protocadherin-15 (PCDH15) and cadherin-23 (CDH23) are associated with tip links, structures thought to gate the mechanotransducer channels of hair cells in the sensory epithelia of the inner ear. The present report describes functional and structural analyses of hair cells from Pcdh15av3J (av3J), Pcdh15av6J (av6J) and Cdh23v2J (v2J) mice. The av3J and v2J mice carry point mutations that are predicted to introduce premature stop codons in the transcripts for Pcdh15 and Cdh23, respectively, and av6J mice have an in-frame deletion predicted to remove most of the 9th cadherin ectodomain from PCDH15. Severe disruption of hair-bundle morphology is observed throughout the early-postnatal cochlea in av3J/av3J and v2J/v2J mice. In contrast, only mild-to-moderate bundle disruption is evident in the av6J/av6J mice. Hair cells from av3J/av3J mice are unaffected by aminoglycosides and fail to load with [3H]-gentamicin or FM1-43, compounds that permeate the hair cell's mechanotransducer channels. In contrast, hair cells from av6J/av6J mice load with both FM1-43 and [3H]-gentamicin, and are aminoglycoside sensitive. Transducer currents can be recorded from hair cells of all three mutants but are reduced in amplitude in all mutants and have abnormal directional sensitivity in the av3J/av3J and v2J/v2J mutants. Scanning electron microscopy of early postnatal cochlear hair cells reveals tip-link like links in av6J/av6J mice, substantially reduced numbers of links in the av3J/av3J mice and virtually none in the v2J/v2J mice. Analysis of mature vestibular hair bundles reveals an absence of tip links in the av3J/av3J and v2J/v2J mice and a reduction in av6J/av6J mice. These results therefore provide genetic evidence consistent with PCDH15 and CDH23 being part of the tip-link complex and necessary for normal mechanotransduction

High genetic diversity at the extreme range edge: nucleotide variation at nuclear loci in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Scotland

Nucleotide polymorphism at 12 nuclear loci was studied in Scots pine populations across an environmental gradient in Scotland, to evaluate the impacts of demographic history and selection on genetic diversity. At eight loci, diversity patterns were compared between Scottish and continental European populations. At these loci, a similar level of diversity (θsil=~0.01) was found in Scottish vs mainland European populations, contrary to expectations for recent colonization, however, less rapid decay of linkage disequilibrium was observed in the former (ρ=0.0086±0.0009, ρ=0.0245±0.0022, respectively). Scottish populations also showed a deficit of rare nucleotide variants (multi-locus Tajima's D=0.316 vs D=−0.379) and differed significantly from mainland populations in allelic frequency and/or haplotype structure at several loci. Within Scotland, western populations showed slightly reduced nucleotide diversity (πtot=0.0068) compared with those from the south and east (0.0079 and 0.0083, respectively) and about three times higher recombination to diversity ratio (ρ/θ=0.71 vs 0.15 and 0.18, respectively). By comparison with results from coalescent simulations, the observed allelic frequency spectrum in the western populations was compatible with a relatively recent bottleneck (0.00175 × 4Ne generations) that reduced the population to about 2% of the present size. However, heterogeneity in the allelic frequency distribution among geographical regions in Scotland suggests that subsequent admixture of populations with different demographic histories may also have played a role